On the other hand, forest area shrank under most of the climate scenarios, only expanding in the most optimistic scenario. Grasslands expanded in the Sierra Nevada and southern parts of the state and contracted in the north. In all four scenarios, grasslands generally did better than forests. The researchers used a forest simulation model to test how well forests and grasslands in California would fare in four different climate scenarios: 1) an optimistic scenario where emissions stop, 2) a “business-as-usual,” where emissions continue at the present rate, 3) cyclical drought, and 4) “megadrought” that persists for the next century. Meanwhile, Dass notes, grasslands were getting very little attention, even though grasslands are an important native ecosystem in California - especially in the southern part of the state. “We realized that a lot of money is being invested in the forests which are being impacted quite a bit by these wildfires," he says, "which are literally burning the forests and causing all the money invested to go up in smoke." Lead author Pawlok Dass, a postdoctoral researcher at Davis, who focuses on the global carbon cycle and climate change impacts on ecosystems, wondered whether the focus on forests in climate mitigation plans might be a problem. Most of the carbon that these trees stored is above ground and will be released when the trees burn or decay. The Forest Service has estimated that 129 million trees have died in California since 2010. California redwoods, for example, absorb more carbon per acre than any other system in the world.īut as a whole, California’s forests are faring poorly in the face of increasingly severe drought, fire, and beetle kill. ![]() Currently, forests store much greater amounts of carbon than grasslands. ![]() Grasses store more of their carbon underground, leading to fewer carbon losses from fire or drought. As the vegetation grows back, the system should reabsorb carbon from the atmosphere, serving as carbon sinks - but that depends on how well those grasses and trees respond to a changing climate in the years to come.Ī new study from researchers at UC Davis finds that grasslands are likely to be more resilient carbon sinks than forests as the climate changes. Over the past week, multiple large wildfires have broken out across California from San Diego County to the Oregon border, releasing tons of carbon dioxide into the air.
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